10 on tuesday am read – the big picture

• The bulls’ worst recession fear: There won’t be oneThere is now justification for opposing Wall Street’s prediction that 2023 is sure to bring a recession. The corollary is that the Fed will reverse course, start easing monetary policy, and fuel a new bull market. The strongest support for this scenario is the yield curve, tracking yields on Treasury securities across maturity periods. (Barron) See also After $18 trillion on the run, global stocks face more hurdles in 2023Recession, rising interest rates risk causing a slowdown in earnings in 2023, and question marks remain over how Big Tech and China will perform. (bloomberg)

• For a decade, Rolex watches have outperformed the stock marketThe return on investment for Rolex watches has been higher than real estate, the stock market, or even gold over a 10-year period, from 2011 to 2021, according to Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of Bob’s Watches, an online marketplace for resale with a focus on Rolex watches. (Barron)

• Unpacking the Outlook 2023 research report: knock yourselves (FT Alphaville) See also Major banks have predicted a recession, and the Fed pivoted in 2023More than two-thirds of economists at 23 major financial institutions expect the United States to experience a contraction this year (Wall Street Journal)

• The performance of US bonds shows that the Fed is not behind the curve: Contrary to popular belief, debt investors are growing more confident in the central bank’s ability to contain inflation. (bloomberg)

• 2023 will be the year of the electric SUVNext year will be a parade of affordable and charge-friendly electric cars, though it will still be hard to buy one. (bloomberg) See also Tesla’s worst year ever on the market continues to be left behind by an expensive auto stockEven after a record 65% drop this year, the electric car maker’s 2020-2021 surge has left it with a market value of $389 billion, more than Toyota Motor Corp, General Motors, Stellantis NV and Ford. motor. combined company. (luck)

• How the marijuana “green rush” collapsedThe glut of cannabis in several states has pushed down the price of legal cannabis, sending small businesses into turmoil. (Washington Post)

• Why the seed oligarchs rule our world. When a very wealthy man, accustomed not only to getting what he wants but also to being a much admired icon, finds himself not only losing his aura but becoming the object of widespread ridicule, of course he lashes out intermittently, and in so doing makes his problems worse. (The New York Times) See also Get yourself some “no men” What happens to people who become so powerful, rich, and influential that no one is willing to tell them they are wrong? It is a historical problem that has been around since people have been very successful. (The Big Picture)

• The most dangerous people on the Internet in 2022: From the SBF to the GRU, these forces have been the most disruptive wreckers of online chaos this year. (Wired)

• How Adrian Fontes Plans To Protect Arizona Elections From ‘Maja Fascists’ The Democrat who defeated the far right in the midterm elections to become the next Secretary of State doesn’t utter words (Watchman) See also Extremists are at the forefront of the blockade: Final Word of the Committee Jan. 6 The Capitol Attack Committee’s massive final report delves deeper into the unspoken alliance between Trump allies and far-right groups that emerged in the riots.Politico)

• NASA Stellar 2022Amazing photos from a historic year in space (Wall Street Journal)