Stock performance in Biden’s first two years was the worst in 20 years.
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President Joe Biden begins his third year in the Oval Office on Friday. For investors, his tenure has been marked so far by worst performance Since George W. Bush’s first two years in office. Biden, at least, has had a positive return.
the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
It has gained 6% since the start of 2021, when Biden took office. In Bush’s first term, shares fell 19% from 2001 to 2003.
Of course, it’s hard to give bosses much credit or blame for the stock market’s performance. Bush was dealing with the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, as well as the end of the 2000 crash with the bursting of the dotcom bubble. Biden just so happened to be in office Inflation spreadexacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the most aggressive pace in a generation.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, stocks have risen 65% in the first half of the president’s term, according to research from Dow Jones Market Data. The average increase is about 14%. Under Republican presidents, the index is typically up 68% of the time, while under Democrats, the index is up 60% of the time.
In terms of markets, Biden’s first half is the worst for any Democratic president since Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1979, when stocks fell 13%. The stock market’s worst performance ever was in President Herbert Hoover’s first two years in office during the Great Depression, when the index fell more than 40%.
While stocks have underperformed under Biden, his record on economic growth is better. The economy expanded by 5.7% in 2022 and is expected to increase by about 2% in 2022, although official figures have not yet been released.
The next two years for Biden could be better, if they recover from sharp declines in 2022. By contrast, the economy is expected to get worse — and many forecasters see Strong possibility At least a mild recession this year.
| The winner of the election | Opening date | Two years in office | % Change. Two years in office |
|---|---|---|---|
| William McKinley (right) | 3/4/1897 | 3/4/1899 | 61.42% |
| William McKinley (right) | 3/4/1901 | 3/4/1903 | -2.62% |
| Theodore Roosevelt (right) | 9/14/1901 | 9/14/1903 | -25.41% |
| Theodore Roosevelt (right) | 3/4/1905 | 3/4/1907 | 15.58% |
| William Taft (right) | 3/4/1909 | 3/4/1911 | 0.01% |
| Woodrow Wilson (D) | 3/4/1913 | 3/4/1915 | -30.62% |
| Woodrow Wilson (D) | 5/3/1917 | 5/3/1919 | -11.36% |
| Warren G. Harding (right) | 3/4/1921 | 3/4/1923 | 39.14% |
| Calvin Coolidge (right) | 3/8/1923 | 2/8/1925 | 52.55% |
| Calvin Coolidge (right) | 3/4/1925 | 3/4/1927 | 29.55% |
| Herbert Hoover (right) | 3/4/1929 | 3/4/1931 | -42.34% |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | 3/4/1933 | 3/4/1935 | 90.53% |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | 1/20/1937 | 1/20/1939 | -19.82% |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | 01/20/1941 | 01/20/1943 | -6.72% |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | 1/20/1945 | 01/20/1947 | 13.98% |
| Harry S. Truman (D) | 1/20/1949 | 1/20/1951 | 36.09% |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower (right) | 20/1/1953 | 20/1/1955 | 36.47% |
| Dwight D. Eisenhower (right) | 1/1/1957 | 1/1/1959 | 25.59% |
| John F. Kennedy (D) | 20/1/1961 | 20/1/1963 | 6.01% |
| Lyndon Johnson (D) | 20/1/1965 | 20/1/1967 | -5.38% |
| Richard Nixon (right) | 20/1/1969 | 1/20/1971 | -8.73% |
| Richard Nixon (right) | 20/1/1973 | 20/1/1975 | -36.91% |
| Jimmy Carter (D) | 20/1/1977 | 20/1/1979 | -12.67% |
| Ronald Reagan (R) | 20/1/1981 AD | 20/1/1983 AD | 12.64% |
| Ronald Reagan (R) | 1/1/1985 | 1/21/1987 | 66.02% |
| George HW Bush (right) | 20/1/1989 | 1/20/1991 | 18.41% |
| William Clinton (D) | 1/20/1993 | 20/1/1995 | 19.36% |
| William Clinton (D) | 20/1/1997 | 1/20/1999 | 36.41% |
| George W. Bush (right) | 1/20/2001 | 1/20/2003 | -18.90% |
| George W. Bush (right) | 20/1/2005 | 20/1/2007 | 20.00% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 20/1/2009 | 20/1/2011 | 48.73% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 1/21/2013 | 1/21/2015 | 28.61% |
| Donald J. Trump (right) | 20/1/2017 | 20/1/2019 | 24.61% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 1/20/2021 | 20/1/2023 | 5.95% |
Note: Data includes all terms for multiple-term presidents.
Source: Dow Jones market data
Write to Brian Swint at brian.swint@barrons.com