Minor damage california from caye; The Atlantic calms down » Yale Climate Connections

Post-Tropical Storm Kay was announced at 11 p.m. EDT Friday in Pacific waters 145 miles southwest of San Diego, ending the life of the most unusual tropical cyclone.

After dumping up to six inches of rain in Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, causing devastating floods, Kaye approached southern California as a tropical cyclone on Friday. Kay brought up to five inches of rain to the mountains east of San Diego, along with winds of up to 109 mph. Fortunately, no injuries or serious damage were reported in California from Caye, although the storm brought down trees and power lines, and caused rockslides in the mountains. Winds from the Caye did not lead to a significant outbreak of wildfires burning in the state, and the Caye rains helped put out the fires – and provided valuable improvements to the drought.

according to National Weather Servicethe following precipitation amounts were observed in Southern California from Caye:

5.08″: Mt. Laguna
4.61: Ranchita
4.44″: Vulcan Mountain
4.04″: Agua Cliente
3.62: Julian
2.64″: San Felipe
2.22″: Mount San Jacinto
0.65: San Diego Airport

Most of San Diego’s rain (0.61 inches) fell on Friday, making it one of the city’s ten wettest September days in 172 years of records.

The wind storm Reported Kay was 109 mph at 6,500 feet at the summit of Koyamaca. Wind records are not routinely kept, but if confirmed, this could be the strongest wind storm ever reported in San Diego County.

Hurricane Cay’s damage to Puerto Peñasco, Mexico, located at the northern end of the Gulf of California.

On Saturday afternoon, Low Cay’s remains are slowly drifting away from Southern California, but it will continue to bring showers to the San Diego and Los Angeles areas. A welcome rain of up to an inch is expected in parts of southern California through Sunday.

Hurricane Earl dies in the North Atlantic

Hurricane Earl was hardly a tropical cyclone late Saturday morning, traveling north-northeast at 29 mph in waters hundreds of miles south of Newfoundland. At 11 a.m. EDT on Saturday, Earl was a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph, bringing strong winds to southern Newfoundland. St-Pierre, on the island’s south coast, reported winds of 37 mph, and winds of up to 49 mph on Saturday morning.

Although the NHC forecast Earl would peak as a Category 4 storm, the hurricane performed poorly, peaking at Category 2 with winds of 105 mph. Friday evening.

Earl is expected to complete the transition to a powerful extratropical storm by Saturday noon, leaving the Atlantic Ocean clear of named storms – or even a tropical depression – on the season’s busiest historical day, September 10.

Figure 2. Frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2021. (Image credit: Michael Lowery, wplg.com)

Tranquility in the Atlantic

The two tropical waves monitored by the National Hurricane Center on Friday were torn apart by dry air and wind shear. The only wave worth tracking at this point is the one that has not yet moved off the coast of Africa, but is expected to do so on Monday. This wave is expected to move from west to west and northwest at 15-20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic during the week, but it has little to no typical support for development. Dry air shear and wind will make this wave struggle to develop, like many other systems that have this hurricane season. At 8 a.m. EDT in its tropical weather forecast on Saturday, the NHC gave the probabilities of development for 2 days and 5 days at 0% and 30%, respectively.

With half the season over, we saw 5 named storms, 2 tornadoes, and 0 severe tornadoes – the first time since 2014 that no severe tornadoes were observed by mid-season. The 1991 – 2020 Mean Climate For this point of the season, there are 8.1 named storms, 3.4 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes. The capacity of accumulated tornadoes is currently 50% of the average. Long-term runs of the GFS and European model show little change in hostile conditions for hurricane development over the next week, and it’s a reasonable bet that we’ll be lucky with no defined storms during what is typically one of the busiest weeks of the season.

Figure 3. Forecast for Tropical Storm Muifa from 11am EDT on Saturday 10th September, advisory from Joint Hurricane Warning Center.

Typhoon Muifa intensifies in the western Pacific

In the western Pacific, Typhoon Muiva hits the waters east of the Philippines, posing a threat of developing into a major typhoon that will affect Japan’s Ryukyu Islands on Monday. At 8 a.m. EDT on Saturday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) pegged Muifa’s upper winds at 100 mph (1 minute average), moving north-northwest at 7 mph. The Japan Meteorological Agency He put Muifa’s intensity at 80 mph (average 10 minutes for sustained winds).

Conditions were favorable for condensation in Moiva on Saturday, with sea surface temperatures ranging from 28-29 degrees Celsius (82-84 degrees Fahrenheit), light wind shear of 5 to 10 knots, and humid weather. The Joint Hurricane Warning Center at 11 a.m. EDT Saturday called for a rapid intensification of Muifa into a major Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph by 12Z on Sunday. It is expected to weaken then as Muifa crosses the cold water column into eastern Taiwan left behind by Class 5 Super Typhoon Hinnamnor. After that, Muifa is expected to slow down and enter an area with weak guiding currents, giving the long-term forecast higher-than-normal uncertainty. The storm’s very slow movement will raise the cold water, causing additional weakness, as expected with higher winds as Muifa approaches China.

Eye of the Storm is not planned to be published for Sunday, but this post will be updated with any appropriate new information.

Bob Henson contributed to this post. Site visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see Comments Policy below). Sign up to receive notifications of new posts over here.

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