New Mexico vs San Diego State odds
New Mexico 500 in conference play as he hits the road for a take on San Diego State Aztecs.
The Lobos had one of the best overall non-conference performances by any team this season, going a perfect 13-0. But now that they’ve defeated Oral Roberts, it’s only a matter of playing the Mountain West for the rest of the season.
And you start facing the second strongest defense in the Aztec congress.
The Aztecs are 13-3 on the season and 4-0 in the conference. The last time it was their biggest challenge in MWC play to date, they faced the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Nevada never led in the game, while the Aztecs led by as many as 22 points at one point in the second half. In an absolute shocker, however, the Wolf Pack covered +9.5 by half a point after being under 17 at the four-minute mark.
Covering these large disparities has been a problem recently for San Diego State. In four of the last five, SDSU has been favored over five, failing to cover all of them.
The Aztecs are also only 4-9-2 ATS on the season and have been 1-5-2 at home.
Will spread covering be a problem again against Lobos?
The Lobos were rolling when they got into conference play, and that kept going against their first two Mountain West rivals, Colorado State and Wyoming.
But then they dropped a game at Fresno State, which they followed up with a seven-point loss in front of a home crowd.
New Mexico opted for a game against top quarterback Oral Roberts to get back on track, which it did by defeating the Golden Eagles by seven. But I think that outcome may hurt the Lobos more than it helped them as they prepared for San Diego State.
Oral Roberts flies up and down the ground. It does not force many coups and it cannot defend the perimeter. There may not be a more antithetical team for the Aztecs.
San Diego State will pressure the Lobos on every possession. New Mexico was good at not flipping it, but it had never been under pressure like this.
Most importantly, if the Lobos were able to play freely against Oral Roberts, this would be very different.
Against the Aztecs, New Mexico can find success both in the paint as well as at the free throw line. The Lobos achieve 51.6% shooting for an average of 24.9 free throw attempts per game. They also reach 72.4% at the goal line.
San Diego State allows teams to hit 46.8% in the paint so far in conference play. And although opponents only average 16 free throw attempts per game against the Aztecs, SDSU records 17 fouls per game, and UNM has managed 21.6 per contest.
The deciding factor late in the game could be hitting the line, which costs the Aztecs to cover the spread on a regular basis.
San Diego State has long been known for its defense. But this year in particular, there is a definite improvement in her focus and performance on the offensive end — and even more so in team play.
Matt Bradley averages 13.5 points per game on the season, but in conference play, he’s kicked it on a different game. Across four conference games, Bradley averages 21.3 points per game while hitting better than 50% from the floor and 3-point range.
He ranks at 97 percent since collegiate play in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage.
The downturn is coming, though, and it could come against a solid Lobos defense. However, New Mexico allowed conference opponents to take advantage of 37% from midrange – the area where Bradley takes the majority of his shots.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Betting Pic
This game will be determined by two things: turnovers and free throws. The Lobos have been elite at limiting personnel turnover and getting to the foul line.
However, there has been a significant decrease in free throw attempts since the Lobos began conference play. And San Diego was one of the best states in the country when it came to enforcing employee turnover.
With all that said, I think New Mexico knows this is one of the most important conference games of the season. And after dropping games to both Fresno State and UNLV, they’ll have to be sharp here if they’re going to stay in contention the rest of the way.
In addition, the Aztecs struggled to cover the spread. Home court wasn’t very helpful either, since they’re only 1-5-2 in Viejas Arena, which is why I’m going to support the Lobos to keep this close.
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